Shiprock, New Mexico 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

374
FXUS65 KABQ 102351 AAA
AFDABQ

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Albuquerque NM
551 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Issued at 115 PM MDT Fri Aug 8 2025

- Slight risk of severe thunderstorms over northeastern New Mexico
  this afternoon and evening, with a marginal risk elsewhere
  across eastern NM. A marginal risk of severe thunderstorms
  exists over east central NM late Monday afternoon and evening.

- Moderate to high risk of flash flooding below recent burn scars
  Monday and Tuesday.

- Scattered virga showers and isolated dry thunderstorms will be
  capable of producing strong to erratic wind gusts of 40 to 50
  mph over portions of west central and central NM this
  afternoon.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Monday night)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

An unusual weather setup for monsoon season lay across New Mexico
this afternoon. Satellite imagery is capturing a shortwave trough
digging down into northern NM that appears more amplified than
current model analysis is resolving. Outflow from yesterday`s severe
thunderstorm activity over eastern CO did indeed send down a frontal
boundary that advanced thru east-central NM this morning. It is in
the process of stalling and being washed out. Southerly return flow
is riding up into southeastern NM bringing moisture in from the Gulf
highlighted by Td`s in the 50s. Elsewhere, drier surface conditions
are still encamped across western NM into the Rio Grande Valley
where Td`s range from the upper 20s at Farmington to upper 30s in
Albuquerque.

There is a marginal risk of afternoon thunderstorms becoming severe
across eastern NM and a slight risk across far northeastern NM where
a recent Severe Thunderstorm Watch has just been issued through 8pm
MDT. Surface observations at Clayton with northeasterly winds
expected to veer southeasterly this afternoon and a Td at 54F
support RAP forecasts showing 1700-2100 J/kg SBCAPE underlying
40kts of 0-6km bulk shear in the area. CI along the Raton Pass and
Johnson/Bartlett Mesas and the CO Front Range look to skirt this
area along the NM/CO border of Colfax and Union Counties later
this afternoon and early evening. Individual supercells will be
capable of producing large hail and severe wind gusts as they
progress eastward over the high plains toward the OK/TX
Panhandles.

Meanwhile, numerical model guidance continues to show scattered
virga showers with isolated dry thunderstorms developing ahead of
the upper level trough axis over west-central and central NM. Gusty
downdraft wind gusts of 40 to 50+ mph will be possible from this
activity favoring areas of Catron, Socorro, western Lincoln, and
Torrance Counties. Some of this activity will try to enter portions
of Valencia, Bernalillo, and Santa Fe Counties this afternoon as
well. Drier conditions will favor areas behind the trough axis over
far northwestern NM.

Elsewhere, a moderate risk for burn scar flash flooding remains for
the Ruidoso area. Afternoon convection has already begun along the
east slopes of the Sacramento Mts and is favored to steadily migrate
northward toward Ruidoso. Drier northwesterly winds at Sierra Blanca
Airport support the notion that thunderstorm activity will have a
tough time producing heavy rainfall. Nevertheless, the burn scar
flash flood risk remains as grounds already received 0.25" to 0.50"
as observed in rain gages yesterday. Numerical model guidance is in
good agreement that more low-level moisture will progress south and
west tonight, riding up the east slopes of the central mountain
chain Monday morning. Combined with the trailing side of the
shortwave trough and somewhat divergent flow aloft, scattered to
numerous thunderstorms are favored in this area Monday afternoon. A
Flash Flood Watch will be issued for the Ruidoso area as a result.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday through Saturday)
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Monday`s convective activity favoring areas along the eastern slopes
of the central mountain chain will favor a strong outflow of
easterly winds pushing thru the gaps of the central mountain chain.
Strong east canyon winds at Santa Fe and Albuquerque gusting 20 to
30 mph will be accompanied by an influx of low level moisture
pushing to the Continental Divide by Tuesday morning. Some of this
moisture will reach as far as the Northwest Plateau near Farmington
for a brief period Tuesday morning. Combined with the main monsoon
high redeveloping over the Great Basin, this will help drop high
temperatures back several degrees Tuesday. The main sensible weather
impact will be an increased coverage of afternoon thunderstorm
activity initiation along the higher terrain of western, central,
and northern NM Tuesday afternoon. Storm motions will generally be
toward the south and favor an expansion into central valley areas
along and adjacent to the central mountain chain. This will include
the Santa Fe and Albuquerque metro areas late Tuesday afternoon and
evening. Another Flash Flood Watch for slow moving thunderstorms
developing over burn scars looks likely. Wednesday sees the monsoon
high slide back over NM with scattered afternoon convection
recycling moisture.

The monsoon high remains favored to slide east of the region
Thursday and beyond allowing for a modest tap of monsoon moisture to
advect northward into the Desert Southwest late this coming week and
next weekend. This will favor continued daily rounds of afternoon
thunderstorm activity favoring west-central, central, northern, and
eastern areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 522 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Severe thunderstorms will continue this evening across northeast
NM. Large hail in excess of 1.5 inches and damaging wind gusts in
excess of 50kt are the main concerns with these storms. Elsewhere,
showers and isolated storms across central and southwest NM will
produce gusty and erratic winds to 35-40kt through this evening.
Finally, showers and thunderstorms across southeast NM may produce
periods of low visibility in heavy rainfall. Showers and
thunderstorms will persist through 04-05Z before diminishing. Low
clouds, MVFR or low VFR, will impact across northeast NM between
09 and 15Z. Another round of showers and thunderstorms are
expected on Monday afternoon and evening, favoring areas along and
east of the Central Mountain Chain. Some storms will produce
hail, gusty winds and heavy rainfall.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 128 PM MDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Elevated fire weather conditions across northwestern NM exist where
prevailing westerly to northwesterly winds of 10-15mph gusting to 25
mph alongside low humidity. Winds subside tonight here, returning
again Monday afternoon for one more round of elevated fire weather
conditions. Meanwhile, virga showers over west-central and central
NM will produce erratic wind gusts this afternoon and Monday
afternoon. Higher low-level moisture currently present over eastern
NM will spill into portions of the Rio Grande Valley tonight into
Monday morning with a much stronger push westward to at least the
Continental Divide Tuesday morning bringing good to excellent
recoveries in its wake. Lighter prevailing winds alongside the
increased moisture will bring an end to elevated fire weather
conditions. Scattered to numerous afternoon thunderstorms will
threaten burn scar flash flooding however, favoring the east slopes
of the central mountain chain Monday and expanding westward to areas
along the Continental Divide Tuesday. Lighter winds with daily
rounds of afternoon thunderstorms developing over the high terrain
before moving over surrounding lower elevations will remain the rule
Wednesday through the rest of the work week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Farmington......................  57  92  61  94 /   0   0   0   5
Dulce...........................  43  88  46  88 /   0   5   5  40
Cuba............................  52  88  53  85 /  10   5   5  40
Gallup..........................  49  91  48  91 /  10   0   0  10
El Morro........................  54  88  53  86 /  30   0   5  30
Grants..........................  53  91  53  88 /  20   5   5  30
Quemado.........................  58  88  54  88 /  30  10  10  50
Magdalena.......................  62  89  58  85 /  30  30  20  60
Datil...........................  57  87  54  84 /  30  20  10  60
Reserve.........................  53  94  53  93 /  30  30  10  60
Glenwood........................  58  98  58  97 /  40  30  20  70
Chama...........................  44  83  45  80 /   5  20  10  60
Los Alamos......................  57  83  56  81 /  20  40  20  80
Pecos...........................  54  81  52  79 /  40  60  40  70
Cerro/Questa....................  49  81  50  80 /  30  60  30  80
Red River.......................  41  70  42  69 /  40  60  30  80
Angel Fire......................  37  73  37  72 /  40  70  30  80
Taos............................  49  83  49  83 /  30  50  30  70
Mora............................  47  73  47  74 /  40  70  40  80
Espanola........................  56  90  55  89 /  20  40  20  60
Santa Fe........................  59  84  56  82 /  30  40  30  70
Santa Fe Airport................  57  88  55  86 /  30  40  30  50
Albuquerque Foothills...........  67  92  63  90 /  30  30  30  60
Albuquerque Heights.............  65  94  62  91 /  30  20  20  40
Albuquerque Valley..............  63  96  61  94 /  30  20  20  40
Albuquerque West Mesa...........  64  94  62  92 /  30  20  20  40
Belen...........................  61  96  58  94 /  30  20  20  30
Bernalillo......................  62  95  60  93 /  30  20  20  50
Bosque Farms....................  60  96  57  93 /  30  20  20  30
Corrales........................  63  96  61  93 /  30  20  20  40
Los Lunas.......................  62  96  59  94 /  30  20  20  30
Placitas........................  62  91  60  88 /  30  30  20  50
Rio Rancho......................  63  94  61  92 /  30  20  20  40
Socorro.........................  64  98  62  94 /  40  20  30  40
Sandia Park/Cedar Crest.........  57  86  54  83 /  30  30  30  60
Tijeras.........................  59  87  56  85 /  30  30  30  60
Edgewood........................  53  86  52  84 /  30  40  40  50
Moriarty/Estancia...............  52  87  51  84 /  30  40  40  50
Clines Corners..................  54  78  53  77 /  30  40  40  50
Mountainair.....................  56  87  53  83 /  40  30  40  50
Gran Quivira....................  55  86  53  83 /  40  40  50  60
Carrizozo.......................  61  89  60  86 /  50  40  40  50
Ruidoso.........................  57  81  53  77 /  50  60  40  70
Capulin.........................  50  71  50  76 /  60  80  50  40
Raton...........................  50  76  50  79 /  60  80  40  50
Springer........................  51  78  51  81 /  50  80  40  50
Las Vegas.......................  52  76  50  78 /  40  70  50  70
Clayton.........................  57  77  57  82 /  60  60  60  20
Roy.............................  54  78  54  80 /  50  70  60  40
Conchas.........................  61  85  60  86 /  50  50  70  40
Santa Rosa......................  58  83  57  83 /  40  60  60  50
Tucumcari.......................  60  83  58  83 /  60  40  70  20
Clovis..........................  64  91  61  88 /  60  30  70  30
Portales........................  64  92  61  88 /  60  30  70  40
Fort Sumner.....................  63  90  61  88 /  30  30  60  30
Roswell.........................  69  96  67  91 /  40  20  50  30
Picacho.........................  61  88  58  85 /  40  40  50  50
Elk.............................  58  86  55  83 /  40  50  30  60

&&

.ABQ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from Monday afternoon through Monday evening for
NMZ226.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...24
LONG TERM....24
AVIATION...34